2011 Academy Award Predictions

It's 6pm, the evening before the 2011 Oscars, and I'm finally done watching all the Oscar nominated films & docs (except 4 of the 5 foreign films). I wish I could get an invite to become a member of the Academy and vote. It's sad to know that many who can vote don't even watch all the films before voting. Before I give you my picks, do you know how the best film is chosen? Ok, let me try to explain.

So, after the whole The Dark Knight-not-getting-a-nomination debacle, something had to be done. That something resulted to 10 film best feature film nominations in the proceeding years. However, It's no longer who get's the most votes but rather who is higher on everyone's preference.

So, let's say 10 of us vote. Each person lists the best picture in order of preference. For me it's

The Social Network
The Fighter
Inception
Black Swan
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Kids Are Alright
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Now, for a film to win, it has to garner 50% of the votes. So if the Social Network is not voted by 5 out of 10 of us, one film that ranks at the bottom needs to get the boot. So if Winter's Bone is ranked lowest on most of the 10 ballots, it get's booted and its votes redistributed based on popularity. So, if The Social Network, Inception and The Fighter was ranked highly amongst the remaining 9 ballots, then they'll get most of the redistributed votes. This continues until we arrive at the final film. So, it's possible that although I rank the Social Network highly on my ballot, it may get surpassed in number of votes if the other ballots don't rank it as highly. So, you can find the King's Speech or Inception beating it come Oscar night. Hope that makes sense.

As for the rest of my picks, they are as follows:

Best Director:
It's hard to pick which way the Academy will go. Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild Award for directing The King's Speech. However, The Social Network is also a strong contender thus so is David Fincher. I'm going with Tom Hooper.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman in Black Swan. I love Annette Bening. However, Natalie owns the role and you just get lost in her. Unless the Academy wishes to overlook this and award Annette for losing to Hilary Swank twice, it's Natalie Portman's statuette to lose.

Best Actor:
This was tough for me. Jesse Eisenberg truly annoyed the sh*t out of me as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network. James Franco also made 127 Hours truly riveting to watch as the only cast member for most of the film. However, Colin Firth in The King's Speech has the edge this year. And I dare ANYONE to say otherwise!

Best Supporting Actress:
This is hard. It really can go either way between Melissa Leo in The Fighter or Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. The Academy does love kid actors and first time nominees in best supporting female categories tend to win. See Ana Paquin, Tatum O'neil, Jennifer Hudson and Marlee Matlin to name a few. But, despite history, I give this one to Melissa Leo.

Best Supporting Actor:
There's no competition here - Christian Bale in The Fighter - moving on.

Animated Feature Film:
This is a tie between Toy Story 3 and The Illusionist. The Academy loves Pixar film and Sylvain Chomet (the Illusionist) won this category the last time he was nominated for The Triplets of Belleville (I loved it!). But I'm going with Toy Story 3.

Best Documentary:
I've only watched 4 out of the 5 due to availability. My sister and I truly feel Restrepo should win. However, I think the Academy will go with Exit Through The Gift Shop.

Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network will edge out Toy Story 3

Original Screenplay:
Inception should and will win.

What are your picks? Make sure you tune in to ABC come Oscar night, Sunday February 27th at 8pm EST.